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Visionary Myopia
16 March 2004

 

Visionaries tend to go down the wrong roads because they concentrate too much on the technology, and not enough on the shaping influences of social forces as that technology spreads. Indeed, it would seem that the more wrong the original vision, the more important the technology. From robots to nano-technology to interactive entertainment, history is rich with examples of successful technologies that have profited their creators little because the initial conceptualisation of the usage was mistaken.

An applicable example for those in the creative digital industry is the internet: its power derives from the fact that its original architects, Vinton Cerf and Bob Kahn, made no assumptions at all about the ways in which it might be used, and so placed very few constraints on its development. To be sure, this “no vision” vision is not much help when it comes to raising venture capital or attracting buyers for a new gizmo. But it is a powerful reminder that the ultimate yardstick for a successful technology is how well it is accepted in the marketplace—not how well it conforms to the original vision of its proponents
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